Amazon HQ2

[Nole Lou]

I live in Cumming and take public transit to Buckhead everyday. I couldn’t do this commute without it. I look at the fools on 400 hugging the brake while I’m on the bus and then train and think thank God I have this option. My in-laws who are from the metro area (and also now in Forsyth country) want nothing to do with public transit. They are definitely old time southerners....

I think planners are looking at the writing on the wall with younger folks living/buying habits. Country clubs are dying, I think the writing is on the wall 20 years from now for 4000 square foot mini mansions on tiny parcels of land behind a gated subdivision down a windy 2-lane road an hour from Atlanta and with nothing more walkable than the neighborhood tennis courts. I just don't think that's what young people are striving for anymore...privacy, a buffer from brown people, etc. Younger people are all about cooler high density walkable urban and faux urban live/play/work communities. Food, drink and nightlife.

That attraction has driven the housing costs in almost every attractive urban environment to crazy stupid levels...everyone knows how ridiculous SF, Seattle, Boston, etc are, but housing prices in urban living even in places like Nashville and Chattanooga is ridiculous.

Every area that has developed in that mold in the Atlanta area has killed it, even fake ass stuff like the Avalon. The suburban "town centers" have gotten smart, realizing they can package up 90% of that (missing the pro sports and high level entertainment) and package it with actually decent public schools. Suwanee built their Town Center, Norcross downtown is really nice, downtown Roswell is a foodie hub, Alpharetta is in their final stages. Those places can't build $600k townhouses fast enough...that's where the demand clearly is. I drove through downtown Duluth for the first time in ages, and something is going up there adjacent to their downtown, where there used to be Big Lots and pawn shops.

That's the future, in my mind, and public transportation is just going to be part of it. Meaningful companies that contribute to the tax base want young skilled employees, and young skilled employees want a different lifestyle.

Forsyth County could not be more in opposition to the trend. It's why we left. Forsyth County is all about great schools and low taxes, and being wary of minorities. It's a great place to raise kids in terms of schools, and lawns, but I think they're dreadfully behind that trend. There's no city center, no public transport, the parks are mediocre at best, developers run the county, and traffic is horrible. There's zero business tax base, because there's nothing there. And the residents will fight to the death a 40 cent tax increase.

It's going to become a "15 years of your life while your kids are in school" place to live at best. Now, there will definitely be some people who always dig the Forsyth County lifestyle, but it's going to be less and less over a generation.

 

[DanC78]

What happens to their stock price the day they announce?

Does it go up, down, or no affect at all?

 

[GwinnettNole]

I think planners are looking at the writing on the wall with younger folks living/buying habits. Country clubs are dying, I think the writing is on the wall 20 years from now for 4000 square foot mini mansions on tiny parcels of land behind a gated subdivision down a windy 2-lane road an hour from Atlanta and with nothing more walkable than the neighborhood tennis courts. I just don't think that's what young people are striving for anymore...privacy, a buffer from brown people, etc. Younger people are all about cooler high density walkable urban and faux urban live/play/work communities. Food, drink and nightlife.

That attraction has driven the housing costs in almost every attractive urban environment to crazy stupid levels...everyone knows how ridiculous SF, Seattle, Boston, etc are, but housing prices in urban living even in places like Nashville and Chattanooga is ridiculous.

Every area that has developed in that mold in the Atlanta area has killed it, even fake ass stuff like the Avalon. The suburban "town centers" have gotten smart, realizing they can package up 90% of that (missing the pro sports and high level entertainment) and package it with actually decent public schools. Suwanee built their Town Center, Norcross downtown is really nice, downtown Roswell is a foodie hub, Alpharetta is in their final stages. Those places can't build $600k townhouses fast enough...that's where the demand clearly is. I drove through downtown Duluth for the first time in ages, and something is going up there adjacent to their downtown, where there used to be Big Lots and pawn shops.

That's the future, in my mind, and public transportation is just going to be part of it. Meaningful companies that contribute to the tax base want young skilled employees, and young skilled employees want a different lifestyle.

Forsyth County could not be more in opposition to the trend. It's why we left. Forsyth County is all about great schools and low taxes, and being wary of minorities. It's a great place to raise kids in terms of schools, and lawns, but I think they're dreadfully behind that trend. There's no city center, no public transport, the parks are mediocre at best, developers run the county, and traffic is horrible. There's zero business tax base, because there's nothing there. And the residents will fight to the death a 40 cent tax increase.

It's going to become a "15 years of your life while your kids are in school" place to live at best. Now, there will definitely be some people who always dig the Forsyth County lifestyle, but it's going to be less and less over a generation.

Good post. The Avalon at Alpharetta is phonomenal. The shops, eateries, townhomes, etc is the new “town center mall” where people live, work and play. Not only that but Microsoft has an office there... just a really cool area. Roswell has always been nice and Norcross downtown area is getting good too.

Now I will say that I do like living in Cumming. I guess multiple areas appeal to me. One thing about where we live is I can get a much nicer home for a fraction of the cost that I would pay at Avalon or Buckhead or mid-town Atlanta. I do like the peace of “country” living. But I do also have visions of me living in a urban high rise— I think that would be nice. But I always go back to having a wife and 3 kids and figure I do like the Cumming life, and it’s a better fit for them.

But yea, one other thing of note: I definitely having different political views than the majority of my neighbors. It will be interesting to see what this area looks like in 20 years. My in-laws? Well they are counting down the days they can move to the hills, up in the N GA mountains.

 

[TripTych]

TT - can you share this announcement ? Not doubting you, just haven't come across it or looked for it, and I'm interested. Thx.

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2018/08/03/08-03-18-a-gulch.html

This is a little sneak-peak of what's coming. Obviously they aren't going to publicly reveal the buyers at this point...but it alludes to who I was talking about.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2018/08/03/08-03-18-a-gulch.html

This is a little sneak-peak of what's coming. Obviously they aren't going to publicly reveal the buyers at this point...but it alludes to who I was talking about.

$15m doesn't seem like a terribly large amount of money to have a say or leverage in how the rest of the area is developed...

 

[ReliableOstrich]

What happens to their stock price the day they announce?

Does it go up, down, or no affect at all?

Likely depends on the type of tax incentives they receive from the local/state govts. But I assume up. AMZN can do no wrong.

 

[TripTych]

$15m doesn't seem like a terribly large amount of money to have a say or leverage in how the rest of the area is developed...

The 'mystery buyer' is the CIM group and has already purchased a majority of the empty lots around the Gulch. This will finish their assemblage. $1.6/acre is low, but the amount of investment required to see ROI is rather high. There are not many developments that would want to be plopped int he middle of a hole, you really need the entire site to do anything.

I'm not sure what you mean by "leverage in how the rest of the area is developed." They are planning on redeveloping the entire area.

 

[TripTych]

Just to follow up, the CIM group is proposing 9 million square feet of office in the above development. Amazon is requesting the following in their RFP for HQ2

RFP:

Total Square Foot Requirement Up to 8,000,000 Sq. Ft. Beyond 2027

Their initial requirement is for 500k square feet, which is the available space in AT&T 675 building in Midtown since AT&T is vacating that building.

Initial Square Foot Requirement 500,000+ Sq. Ft. Phase I (2019)

 

[OrlandNole]

Just to follow up, the CIM group is proposing 9 million square feet of office in the above development. Amazon is requesting the following in their RFP for HQ2

RFP:


Their initial requirement is for 500k square feet, which is the available space in AT&T 675 building in Midtown since AT&T is vacating that building.

That sounds about right for 50,000 office employees.

Nashville has a similar site - also named The Gulch - on the edge of downtown that has evolved into a really cool place over the last 10 years. It started as multi-family and retail but is now beginning to see some office.

 

[Nole Lou]

Good post. The Avalon at Alpharetta is phonomenal. The shops, eateries, townhomes, etc is the new “town center mall” where people live, work and play. Not only that but Microsoft has an office there... just a really cool area. Roswell has always been nice and Norcross downtown area is getting good too.

Now I will say that I do like living in Cumming. I guess multiple areas appeal to me. One thing about where we live is I can get a much nicer home for a fraction of the cost that I would pay at Avalon or Buckhead or mid-town Atlanta. I do like the peace of “country” living. But I do also have visions of me living in a urban high rise— I think that would be nice. But I always go back to having a wife and 3 kids and figure I do like the Cumming life, and it’s a better fit for them.

But yea, one other thing of note: I definitely having different political views than the majority of my neighbors. It will be interesting to see what this area looks like in 20 years. My in-laws? Well they are counting down the days they can move to the hills, up in the N GA mountains.

Yep..I liked it for many years. And a big part of that was having kids, and the value. No doubt about the value, and the schools. Some of what changed was me. But there is a lot that changed about the area (I was south as south Forsyth can be), particularly the congestion.

As for the attitude, I can't help but chuckle that the white kids are fast approaching minority status in the schools in the southern part of the county. They were so successful holding of African Americans and to some extent Hispanics in South Forsyth, but they're going to end up a minority anyway to the Indians and Asians. Which was fine with me. But little Madison and Autry are about to go from 9th class ranking in the class to 129th in the class over the next several years. The difference in makeup just between my daughter's high school and my son's middle school alone was dramatic. All those white helicopter parents obsessed with their kids grade rankings and accomplishments are about to melt down. Luckily, it didn't give a sh-- about that stuff, and my kids have had great friends in all ethnic groups, but I suspect a backlash is coming.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

but I suspect a backlash is coming.

Have already starting hearing and seeing bits of that backlash and resentment, which I'm sure a certain someone will be happy to manipulate for his own personal benefit.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

I think most people go through stages in life where one setting may work better than the other.

Living downtown is fun when you’re young. But you have kids and outgrow it and want better schools so you move out into the suburbs. And then the kids leave and you’re rattling around a 4000 square-foot house and realize you don’t have that much connection with your neighbors. Many people I know are taking that opportunity to downsize and move back into a more vibrant, walkable atmosphere. The compromise seems to be these “urban” development in suburban areas.

Different strokes for different folks. I think most cities have something to offer everybody.

 

[RunRonnieRun]

That sounds about right for 50,000 office employees.

Nashville has a similar site - also named The Gulch - on the edge of downtown that has evolved into a really cool place over the last 10 years. It started as multi-family and retail but is now beginning to see some office.

My company bought the Velocity building and converted it to apartments from condos back in 2011 / 2012; it is ASTOUNDING to see how The Gulch has evolved since then. It's become a really cool part of town and a destination neighborhood.

 

[cfbfan23]

HQ2 to be split into two?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-split-hq2-two-cities-wsj-reports-194419623.html

 

[FSUdawg]

HQ2 to be split into two?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-split-hq2-two-cities-wsj-reports-194419623.html

Interesting. Just this morning CNBC had a segment discussing HQ2. In their segment they said a decision was not imminent, though it is expected before the end of the year. I didn't catch anything about them splitting the work force, essentially between HQ2 & HQ3, but they did mention that Virginia is rumored to be the favorite at this point.

 

[DanC78]

I hope it gets their stock price back up to over 2k

 

[surfnole]

I think planners are looking at the writing on the wall with younger folks living/buying habits. Country clubs are dying, I think the writing is on the wall 20 years from now for 4000 square foot mini mansions on tiny parcels of land behind a gated subdivision down a windy 2-lane road an hour from Atlanta and with nothing more walkable than the neighborhood tennis courts. I just don't think that's what young people are striving for anymore...privacy, a buffer from brown people, etc. Younger people are all about cooler high density walkable urban and faux urban live/play/work communities. Food, drink and nightlife.

That attraction has driven the housing costs in almost every attractive urban environment to crazy stupid levels...everyone knows how ridiculous SF, Seattle, Boston, etc are, but housing prices in urban living even in places like Nashville and Chattanooga is ridiculous.

Every area that has developed in that mold in the Atlanta area has killed it, even fake ass stuff like the Avalon. The suburban "town centers" have gotten smart, realizing they can package up 90% of that (missing the pro sports and high level entertainment) and package it with actually decent public schools. Suwanee built their Town Center, Norcross downtown is really nice, downtown Roswell is a foodie hub, Alpharetta is in their final stages. Those places can't build $600k townhouses fast enough...that's where the demand clearly is. I drove through downtown Duluth for the first time in ages, and something is going up there adjacent to their downtown, where there used to be Big Lots and pawn shops.

That's the future, in my mind, and public transportation is just going to be part of it. Meaningful companies that contribute to the tax base want young skilled employees, and young skilled employees want a different lifestyle.

Forsyth County could not be more in opposition to the trend. It's why we left. Forsyth County is all about great schools and low taxes, and being wary of minorities. It's a great place to raise kids in terms of schools, and lawns, but I think they're dreadfully behind that trend. There's no city center, no public transport, the parks are mediocre at best, developers run the county, and traffic is horrible. There's zero business tax base, because there's nothing there. And the residents will fight to the death a 40 cent tax increase.

It's going to become a "15 years of your life while your kids are in school" place to live at best. Now, there will definitely be some people who always dig the Forsyth County lifestyle, but it's going to be less and less over a generation.

I agree with part of that. Those young people will have children, and then they will want great schools, and they will want their children to be able to go outside the front door and be safe. We've been hearing about this inward migration to the cities for decades, but it's never happened with families. It's a meme that developers like to promote.

Kids change EVERYTHING.

Yes there may be demand for a 600K townhouse, but that is idiocity (is that a word), because developers can always build more condos/townhomes and bring down the value of that townhome.

Parents with kids want great schools and great neighborhoods without the BS.

A good friend of mine lives in East Cobb (Lassiter highschool, one of the best in the state), and he is proud of the facet that the school zone has zero apartment buildings. Lassiter is one of the best schools academically , and otherwise, in the state. Cobb country opposes all mass transit because it will bring in apartment buildings and temporary residents with no interest in the community and Section 9 tenants.

It's simply a fact of life regarding the cost of living in "the city" and the benefits of living elsewhere when your social life is gone and your priority is your kids.

In Orlando, we do have a couple of "downtown areas" that have families (Baldwin Park, Celebration), but they are rich and houses go for 700K plus which most people can't afford. They are also single family homes in neighborhoods with front porches, etc. But very few families can actually afford to live there.

 

[RunRonnieRun]

Your friend in East Cobb is either a fool, a racist, or both. I’m sure he’s not unique in his neighborhood.

 

[DanC78]

Your friend in East Cobb is either a fool, a racist, or both. I’m sure he’s not unique in his neighborhood.

Why a racist?

 

[surfnole]

Your friend in East Cobb is either a fool, a racist, or both. I’m sure he’s not unique in his neighborhood.

You can't argue with facts.

And no, he is not unique. And he is no fool. I guarantee he is smarter and more productive than most people in the Locker Room. There is a reason that anybody who lives in that area has rejected MARTA going up I-75. There have been many news articles posted on this in the AJC, and several conversations on these message boards.

Why did the Atlanta Braves move to Cobb County or at least NW Atlanta? Because nobody near their home stadium would support the team or pay the enormous price to go downtown and pay for a game..

You can't debate the quality of Cobb's schools.

And how is prohibiting apartment buildings racist?

These are just facts of life. I may be wrong, or I may be right, but this is reality.

And now I will shut up so the thread doesn't get locked...Seems two sides can't discuss anything, so we each live in our bubble. And if the "bubble" gets too contentious, the thread gets locked.

So maybe we should stick to our favorite movie???

 

[SoddyNole]

No dog in this hunt but are you the "friend"?

 

[surfnole]

No dog in this hunt but are you the "friend"?

No. I live in Orlando. My friend in Atlanta. When I had kids I purchased a house in the best school district in Orange County.

It's simply how things work when you have kids unless you can afford to pay for a private school.

 

[TripTych]

There are hundreds of thousands of surf and his friends. It's a story I've heard a thousand times. And people wonder why I have an irrational hatred to those who live OTP.

Most of them have a 'what's best for me mentality,' rather than make some sacrifices and have some civic pride and ask what they can do for their city. And so therefore, they clog up our streets and bish about our transit all the while heading back to their gated enclaves away from the unwashed. God forbid there's people who live in an apartment complex around the corner so your kids get a little diversity. Also, they get pissed if you laugh at their mindless hour long commute and say "at least my kids can go outside and be safe."

The suburbs are unsustainable, expensive and heavily subsidized by the government. Incentives happily slurped up by a majority of those preaching personal responsibility, while the urban core has been which is much more efficient from an infrastructure perspective has been largely ignored by those government handouts. The next generation has seen the light of the hypocritical idiocies and is willing actually give back to their communities by maybe 'sacrificing' a few points on the great schools score to actually spend time with their families rather than sitting in traffic for ten hours a week. But yeah, I'm sure your 'smart' friend's kids love the isolation of the cul-de-sac and being surrounded by carbon copies of themselves. Sounds like a fantastic existence.

 

[NDallasRuss]

Your friend in East Cobb is either a fool, a racist, or both. I’m sure he’s not unique in his neighborhood.

Classist =/ racist

You can be against ALL the poors coming into your neighborhood, regardless of their race, religion, or nationality.

 

[surfnole]

There are hundreds of thousands of surf and his friends. It's a story I've heard a thousand times. And people wonder why I have an irrational hatred to those who live OTP.

Most of them have a 'what's best for me mentality,' rather than make some sacrifices and have some civic pride and ask what they can do for their city. And so therefore, they clog up our streets and bish about our transit all the while heading back to their gated enclaves away from the unwashed. God forbid there's people who live in a f'n apartment complex around the corner so your kids get a little diversity. Also, they get pissed if you laugh at their mindless hour long commute and say "at least my kids can go outside and be safe."

The suburbs are unsustainable, expensive and heavily subsidized by the government. Incentives happily slurped up by a majority of those preaching personal responsibility, while the urban core has been which is much more efficient from an infrastructure perspective has been largely ignored by those government handouts. The next generation has seen the light of the hypocritical idiocies and is willing actually give back to their communities by maybe 'sacrificing' a few points on the great schools score to actually spend time with their families rather than sitting in traffic for ten hours a week. But yeah, I'm sure your 'smart' friend's kids love the isolation of the cul-de-sac and being surrounded by carbon copies of themselves. Sounds like a fantastic existence.

Trip, please expound on how the urban core is more efficient when the schools suck, crime is higher, housing prices are higher blah blah blah.

People vote with their feet.

Waiting for you to have kids, and you can stay downtown if you can afford private school.

 

[surfnole]

Classist =/ racist

You can be against ALL the poors coming into your neighborhood, regardless of their race, religion, or nationality.

Again, you can't argue with facts. It's not against the poor or any race/religion/nationality. It depends on the values, stability of the family, importance of education etc.

The Vietnamese, Chinese etc, come to the US and kick ass regardless of circumstance. So much so that Cal universities are practicing discrimination against those groups.

NDallasRus, I posit that you have no kids of your own, so you are debating a theoretical argument rather than one you actually live. And if you do have children, would you bus them into a failing inner city school so that they could experience diversity?

 

[TripTych]

Trip, please expound on how the urban core is more efficient when the schools suck, crime is higher, housing prices are higher blah blah blah.

People vote with their feet.

Waiting for you to have kids, and you can stay downtown if you can afford private school.

If you can’t figure out how the urban core is more efficient, I’m not sure I want to continue this conversation.

I have two and both will be (or are) attending public schools.

 

[seminole97]

If you can’t figure out how the urban core is more efficient, I’m not sure I want to continue this conversation.

MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY ACHIEVED!
WELCOME TO THE CORE!

 

[Gonolz]

And now I will shut up so the thread doesn't get locked...Seems two sides can't discuss anything, so we each live in our bubble. And if the "bubble" gets too contentious, the thread gets locked.

So maybe we should stick to our favorite movie???

Mine is Office Space, which coincidentally is what Amazon is seeking.

 

[DanC78]

There are hundreds of thousands of surf and his friends. It's a story I've heard a thousand times. And people wonder why I have an irrational hatred to those who live OTP.

Most of them have a 'what's best for me mentality,' rather than make some sacrifices and have some civic pride and ask what they can do for their city. And so therefore, they clog up our streets and bish about our transit all the while heading back to their gated enclaves away from the unwashed. God forbid there's people who live in a f'n apartment complex around the corner so your kids get a little diversity. Also, they get pissed if you laugh at their mindless hour long commute and say "at least my kids can go outside and be safe."

The suburbs are unsustainable, expensive and heavily subsidized by the government. Incentives happily slurped up by a majority of those preaching personal responsibility, while the urban core has been which is much more efficient from an infrastructure perspective has been largely ignored by those government handouts. The next generation has seen the light of the hypocritical idiocies and is willing actually give back to their communities by maybe 'sacrificing' a few points on the great schools score to actually spend time with their families rather than sitting in traffic for ten hours a week. But yeah, I'm sure your 'smart' friend's kids love the isolation of the cul-de-sac and being surrounded by carbon copies of themselves. Sounds like a fantastic existence.

What are you talking about dude?

Do you really have an “irrational hatred to those who live OTP” ?!?!

 

[NDallasRuss]

NDallasRus, I posit that you have no kids of your own, so you are debating a theoretical argument rather than one you actually live. And if you do have children, would you bus them into a failing inner city school so that they could experience diversity?

Whoa there, big fella!

I'm on your side!

We moved way out to the far reaches of the suburbs so we could send our kid to a great school in the richest county in the country. She goes to school with a lot of different- looking kids. What they all have in common though is that they're all goal- oriented and success- driven. These kids are all high achievers, because their families are all high achievers. There's no violence or bullying at her school, because the kids don't have time for any of that. The results are obvious in the test scores and college acceptances.

Like it or not, fair or not, the schools with the poorer students - regardless of what color/ religion/ nationality they are- don't do as well.

 

[RunRonnieRun]

Classist =/ racist

You can be against ALL the poors coming into your neighborhood, regardless of their race, religion, or nationality.

On paper, sure. But you’re lying to yourself if you don’t believe NIMBYists are afraid of living among brown people.

 

[RunRonnieRun]

I have two and both will be (or are) attending public schools.

Same

 

[totallynot321Nole]

Just a thought: what if Amazon decides to split HQ2 between Queens, NY and Arlington, VA.

That would kind of be like ITP (Queens) and OTP (Arlington).

 

[MIKE_G]

I have two and both will be (or are) attending public schools.

Same

Same, although Decatur schools (still ITP, bitches), not APS. We might have stayed in Atlanta had the rezoning been more favorable to our neighborhood back in 2012-13. Elementary school we were zoned for isn't even open anymore, I don't think (Whitefoord).

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Just a thought: what if Amazon decides to split HQ2 between Queens, NY and Arlington, VA.

That would kind of be like ITP (Queens) and OTP (Arlington).

It appears this is the most likely outcome:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-split.html

Bit shocked that they're coming to NYC but the talent is here. Salaries and rents will be going up, even more.

 

[runkpanole]

It's been a while since we have had a good old fashioned ITP v. OTP battle. The LR, like history, likes to repeat itself.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Like it or not, fair or not, the schools with the poorer students - regardless of what color/ religion/ nationality they are- don't do as well.

Maybe we should allocate school funding such that they have the same $/student as the schools in the wealthier neighborhoods of those very same districts. In fact, considering the work to be done in those poorer neighborhoods, perhaps we should allocate them even more resources.

If we were ever to become a nation that believes in doing what it takes to provide everyone with a high quality education, seeing it as an investment in the future, we'd be nearly unstoppable. But we seem keen to fund and focus on everything but education. In the minds of many the only education that matters is that of their own child. Sad.

 

[seminoleed]

"heavily subsidized by the government."

How so?

 

[seminole97]

In the minds of many the only education that matters is that of their own child. Sad.

In the minds of many the education of their own child doesn’t matter. Sad.