Deaths that are clearly coming, possibly not until next year though (I think - I don't have any inside info):
-Ser Jorah Mormount
-Littlefinger or Arya...possibly both
-The Hound or The Mountain...possibly both
-Jamie or Cersei...possibly both
-At least one more dragon
-Night King
Not sure about:
-Tormund (I still think his days are numbered)
-Brienne of Tarth
-Bran Stark
I think Jon, Dany, and Tyrion make it to the end though.
But regarding not killing major characters anymore...The Sand Snakes, Ileria Sand, and Lady Olenna were all just killed. As was Randall Tarly. Granted maybe not huge names (Olenna was, IMO) but significant characters in the story for sure.
But at the end of last season, Marjorie Tyrell, Lloris Tyrell, Mace Tyrell, Kevin Lannister, Lancel Lannister, The High Sparrow, Grand Maester Pycell, and Tommen Baratheon/Lannister were all killed in the same episode..many in the same scene. Many of those were huge names. Has everyone forgotten that already?
We haven't seen the one Sand Snake dead yet (we know she will die) and her mother hasn't been killed either (that has been shown). I'd agree with most of who you said:
Definite:
Jorah: dies saving Dany
Littlefinger: killed by Arya (they are making this painfully obvious and I think happens next week)
Both Cleganes, likely killing each other
Cersei: by Jaime
Yara or Theon and Euron: one of the siblings dies while killing the Uncle and the other is ruler of the Iron Islands
Night King because duh, he ain't winning
Almost everyone else is a maybe, but how I think it could end:
Gendry and Arya together, uniting the houses as Robert and Ned had hoped for back in Season 1, and they rule the Stormlands
Sansa is Lady of Winterfell
Bran is the 3-eyed Raven and apparently that role has always been important so he is safe because they have no time to introduce a successor
Tyrion is Lord of Casterly Rock
Bronn gets Highgarden because he's switching sides again, and someone gets that place
Tormund and Brienne make giant babies and take command of the Night's Watch just because we all want that!
Jon gets the throne. Dany dies giving him an heir. The prophecy for her was that she would be reunited with Khal Drogo when she gives birth again and her visions at the end of season 2 in the house of the undead (or was it undying) were of the future and not past. She has gone to Dragonstone, been to the wall, and her dragons will soon burn Kings Landing. The last part was being reunited with Drago and their son, and that will be the afterlife.
Note: I reserve all rights to change this opinion as soon as next week when the writers decide to go a completely different direction.