It’s also worth noting that the numbers for H1N1 account for all flu infections that year.
Covid-19 is occurring alongside the typical flu season.
Covid-19 is occurring alongside the typical flu season.
Outstanding read from world renowned Stanford Epidemiologist
- Thread starter Scalphunter
- Start date
I guess some of you folks need something more recent to put things into perspective:
According to an estimate by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were approximately 45 million cases of the flu in the United States during the 2017-2018 influenza season, resulting in an estimated 810,000 flu-associated hospitalizations and an estimated 61,000 flu-associated deaths
https://cnsnews.com/article/interna...ate-45-million-flu-cases-61000-flu-associated
Were our medical resources overburdened then???
(CNN)An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This means it was the deadliest season in more than four decades -- since 1976, the date of the first published paper reporting total seasonal flu deaths, said CDC Spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund.
"One hundred and eighty kids -- this really hit me hard as the father of three kids -- died last year from the flu. And the majority of them were unvaccinated," said US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome M. Adams. speaking at a news conference hosted by the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases on Thursday. "Flu vaccinations save lives."
Additionally, the nation experienced a record-breaking estimated 900,000 hospitalizations last flu season.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
I wish some of you folks would start looking at real statistics and tell me how this is comparing to previous flu seasons and how come we didn't shut down our nation for 80,000 American deaths???
According to an estimate by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were approximately 45 million cases of the flu in the United States during the 2017-2018 influenza season, resulting in an estimated 810,000 flu-associated hospitalizations and an estimated 61,000 flu-associated deaths
https://cnsnews.com/article/interna...ate-45-million-flu-cases-61000-flu-associated
Were our medical resources overburdened then???
(CNN)An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This means it was the deadliest season in more than four decades -- since 1976, the date of the first published paper reporting total seasonal flu deaths, said CDC Spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund.
"One hundred and eighty kids -- this really hit me hard as the father of three kids -- died last year from the flu. And the majority of them were unvaccinated," said US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome M. Adams. speaking at a news conference hosted by the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases on Thursday. "Flu vaccinations save lives."
Additionally, the nation experienced a record-breaking estimated 900,000 hospitalizations last flu season.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
I wish some of you folks would start looking at real statistics and tell me how this is comparing to previous flu seasons and how come we didn't shut down our nation for 80,000 American deaths???
I think fear of the unknown is the driver here, Scalp. We've lived with the flu around us for 100 years - at least. 50% of us get a flu shot and I shudder to think how many more would be dead if no one got the vaccine. We also help protect those who don't get the shot because at least we're not likely to be spreading it around.
There's also some thought that a large portion of the population has at the very least some level of acquired immunity to the flu, albeit to varying degrees.
This virus is different in that it's new, and it attacks differently, and can lead to a strain of pneumonia that is different than the pneumonia that we can vaccinate for here in the US.
I got a flu shot this year and I also got the pneumonia vaccine. Neither would help me in blocking CVD19.
But flu season is not over, and some folks are feeling lousy because they might actually have the flu, or walking pneumonia, or bronchitis or even a bad sinus infection. So there you see where the fear comes into play.
There's also some thought that a large portion of the population has at the very least some level of acquired immunity to the flu, albeit to varying degrees.
This virus is different in that it's new, and it attacks differently, and can lead to a strain of pneumonia that is different than the pneumonia that we can vaccinate for here in the US.
I got a flu shot this year and I also got the pneumonia vaccine. Neither would help me in blocking CVD19.
But flu season is not over, and some folks are feeling lousy because they might actually have the flu, or walking pneumonia, or bronchitis or even a bad sinus infection. So there you see where the fear comes into play.
Agree complerely. Additionally, there are/were ways to protect yourself from the flu. The vaccine isn’t 100% effective but it’s better than nothing. I work in a healthcare field, have gotten my flu shot every year I can remember, and haven’t gotten the flu in 13 years probably.
Two issues that seem to be driving the severity and overall number of transmissions are population density and the age of people getting it. Italy is getting ruined bc of the density of many of their cities, the reliance on public transportation and how old their population is. Conversely Germany has very few deaths largely bc the people getting it there are under the age of 60. The population density issue can’t really be helped but if we want to keep the hospitals from over flowing I’d love to see public health officials really really hammer home to the elderly that they need to isolate. Yeah, it sucks to not see the kids or grandkids for a couple months but it’s imperative. My parents are in their late 60s and grandparents late 80s, early 90s. I don’t plan to see them until May if not later and that’s the way it should be.
In our world, we are so ready for things to happen when we want them to, or the way we want, that when something like this comes along, we want to resist it as much as we can with emotion or logic. But the virus doesn't care about those things. There are real implications for the world if this thing progressed to a point of taking the healthcare system to its knees where all patients would not be able to get the care they need. The response to this should be a lesson. First, trust people that have demonstrated they are trustworthy. Second, preparation for this type of an event is critical. Why we, and the world in general, didn't have a cache of supplies for this specific type of event makes no sense.
Trusting sources is so important. There was a huge hopeful reaction to the fact that there was a "treatment" that was 100% effective. But, true science doesn't make quick, knee-jerk reactions and declare it as truth. There has to be a real study, reviewed by the scientific community, before we can move forward with something.
Trusting sources is so important. There was a huge hopeful reaction to the fact that there was a "treatment" that was 100% effective. But, true science doesn't make quick, knee-jerk reactions and declare it as truth. There has to be a real study, reviewed by the scientific community, before we can move forward with something.
Just FYI Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin is being used almost universally at every hospital in America right now to treat hospitalized COVID-19 patients. For the medical novices, physicians prescribe off label medications of drugs all the time. As the son of pharmacist I can attest that it happens all the time.
Just because the media isn't telling you this, it is absolutely happening almost universally as we speak. You don't have to wait for a clinical trial to prescribe medications as treatments that are working and saving lives right now.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/therapeutic-options.html
Im moreso referencing the 100% aspect of the conclusion and use if the phrase game changer. One is reckless, the other, seemingly premature. Could they work for some people, yes. But we shouldn’t be trying to tout it as a savior and a means to tell ourselves that life can just return to normal
It is a game changer especially since it's being used almost universally in America with great success. Just because a clinical trial hasn't been completed doesn't mean that it isn't working.
Didn't I meet you at some medical seminar? It may have been entitled, "There is a fungus among us." It was very informative such as your excellent post! Thanks for sharing!
Is this another prediction or just merely a formulated expectation based on experience and keen insight? South Florida has many hot spots I've been told. But please keep us updated.
Social isolation? Now I know how Jack Torrance felt at the Overlook Hotel. Redrum! Redrum!
Thank you, Wendy.It appears that social isolation affects some more than others...
I have a 28 year old and 32 year old, well-educated and generally practical, and they are walking around with 'crazy eyes.' I share statistics and expert opinions, and it doesn't make a dent. And we live in Ohio. The fear is real.
I completely agree with you. I was pointing at that we are a loooooong way from 61 million U.S. Coronavirus infections and 12,500 U.S. deaths. And I barely remember hearing about that episode in 2009. No social distancing, no lockdowns, no quarantines, no travel bans. I'm not saying the two viruses are the same, but geez.
I believe you are incorrect. I believe it was the majority flu virus, but not the only virus.
And of course the Wuhan Chinese Covid-19 Sars-Cov2 virus is not influenza.
I haven’t looked for the citation, but they don’t typically differentiate by strain of influenza in the yearly summaries. It’s a holistic number. The novel H1N1 is thought to have accounted for more than 85% of all flu occurrences that season. Interestingly, it ended up being a mild year for flu because H1N1 was less dangerous for the elderly who had some acquired immunity from earlier strains that were similar Enough. Instead, it inflicted most harm on youth, particularly with compromised immune systems.
Total hospitals: 6,156
Total beds: 924,107
From American Hospital Association https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals
Apparently the hospital system was not overloaded from the 2009 flu nor others between 2010 and 2019 (even the worst year, 2018-19 with 810,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths.) So a capacity of 924,107 beds apparently is enough for a normal year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burde...pact of flu,61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
But can hospitals cope with the regular flu plus the "millions of cases" and 100,000-200,000 deaths that Fauci estimated today would be the U.S. toll of Covid-19? (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/coronavirus-deaths-cases-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html)
Total beds: 924,107
From American Hospital Association https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals
Apparently the hospital system was not overloaded from the 2009 flu nor others between 2010 and 2019 (even the worst year, 2018-19 with 810,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths.) So a capacity of 924,107 beds apparently is enough for a normal year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burde...pact of flu,61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
But can hospitals cope with the regular flu plus the "millions of cases" and 100,000-200,000 deaths that Fauci estimated today would be the U.S. toll of Covid-19? (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/coronavirus-deaths-cases-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html)
I know they are laying nurses off, in some rural Ga. areas. The hospitals are not doing any elective surgery and procedures. That has left a lot of healthcare workers with little to do at the moment. That is crazy considering the overworked conditions in many places
I work in healthcare as a vendor. A lot of nurses from ORs and the cath lab are being moved to the floors. I don’t mean because the hospitals in Tampa are so overwhelmed with COVID patients yet, but just in general bc there are hardly any cases going on.
This. It's equally as wrong to assume that it will cure 100% of people as it was when estimates that 3.2M American's would die based on a 1% death rate (although the latter was more misleading). Data is becoming more robust each day which is a good thing. I also particularly like that Florida reports the numbers tested rather than just the number of infected persons. It's very helpful to statistically see what is occurring and evolving.
Great info in there. Keep in mind that where the flu is concerned the vast majority of cases and resulting deaths occur in an approximately 22-week window from late October / early November through April of the following year. There will still be flu cases after April (I have had flu in May in the past but that was Swine flu in 2009 so a bit skewed). In the height of flu season, there can be upwards of 40,000 hospitalizations per week in the US. We are nearing the end of the 19/20 flu season.
The problem with Swine Flu was that it occurred as a flu season ended and was very threatening to the younger population. The numbers are all over the place but about 20-30% of the cases occurred out of season in late April 2009 through mid-October 2009. Only a small percentage of flu cases normally occur in that window.
You can see the current flu prevalence in the CDC chart shown below. Peak of the flu season is weeks 5 and 6 of the year - late January through early/mid February.
This sounds like it bodes well for us Floridians:
https://news.yale.edu/2020/03/30/hopes-pandemic-respite-spring-may-depend-upon-what-happens-indoors
https://news.yale.edu/2020/03/30/hopes-pandemic-respite-spring-may-depend-upon-what-happens-indoors
Longtime buddy from HS days is an OB/GYN and said he started seeing his Moms To Be at 9 AM and was done for the day by 10:45 AM. Very slow for him because elective surgeries are off the table now, literally.
I just can't imagine having that job. All of those intimate views and things could get very hairy and fast! Speaking of toilet paper, what prevented the toilet paper from crossing the road? It ran into too many cracks....
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisett...drugmaker-of-hydroxychloroquine/#536d226d7260
Is it really though? Many doctors have gone on record saying they don't know if it is doing anything, but they are treating with it. I think it being a product of a huge means of money making for a select few makes a lot of sense, as far as why it is being pushed as an answer with such little scientific evidence.
I love these drive by statements by someone with a very obvious agenda: "Many doctors have gone on record saying they don't know if it is doing anything". Because a very large number of physicians WORLDWIDE are going ON THE RECORD stating that it is absolutely working. Then you start going with the line about how it doesn't work and inferring that someone is touting it for a financial gain. Are you so obtuse to realize that hydroxycholoquine is a generic drug. Do you know what that means? As the son of a pharmacist let me educate you. It means its very cheap, covered by Medicare and most employment insurance plans. It also means that ANY pharmaceutical company can produce it. It goes for about 35 cents a dose. So, there is very little financial gain for any company to produce this drug.
Here's some quick FACTS:
Quick Google search......It is available in generic and brand versions. Generic hydroxycholoquine is covered by most Medicare and insurance plans, but some pharmacy coupons or cash prices may be lower. The lowest GoodRx price for the most common version of hydroxychloroquine is around $14.95
Here's just a few ON THE RECORD physicians:
An international poll of more than 6,000 doctors released Thursday found that the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was the most highly rated treatment for the novel coronavirus.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/2/hydroxychloroquine-rated-most-effective-therapy-do/
What, pray tell, is my obvious agenda? You clearly think that this stuff is a bona fide fix, when it doesn't have nearly the reputation, universally, that you are saying it has. Yes, it is circulated as a means of treatment, but how much good it is doing is up for debate and that's not a political thing it is just freaking science
...God help us if the pills are orange...it’s going to really put some people over the edge.
LOL, that would be funny. Honestly, if there was going to be something that drove me over the edge, its the number of people who think Trump could do no wrong and basically want to be just like him. But I've gotten over that, the rest is just hilarity in a really sad way....God help us if the pills are orange...it’s going to really put some people over the edge.
Equally is the number of people who feel he can do nothing right...which is more sad than funny.
