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The Braves Got Hot Fast, And They Might Stay That Way
By Neil Paine
The Atlanta Braves are, as they say, “ahead of schedule.” Going into the season, we commended their young talent base but gave them just a 15 percent shot at making the playoffs, figuring that they’d need another year of rebuilding before truly making the leap toward contention. Fast-forward a month, however, and Atlanta is blowing away those expectations: Against a difficult schedule, the Braves are 19-11 and occupy first place in the NL East — one and a half games clear of the New York Mets, who they just swept in a three-game series. So far, at least, the Braves’ future appears to be now.
Even so, statistical algorithms such as FanGraphs’ rest-of-season projections and our own Elo system aren’t fully convinced. The former only has the Braves winning at the majors’ 21st-best clip over the rest of the season, while the latter is barely more optimistic, with Atlanta ranked 14th in the big leagues in terms of Elo. The stats are optimized for prediction, of course — but they have blind spots, too. So, a couple of days into May, is it too soon to call this a breakout year for Atlanta?
Certainly Atlanta has played at an elite level over the first month of the season. On top of its impressive record (a 103-win pace over 162 games), the Braves rankThis and all following 2018 stats are up-to-date through Wednesday’s games.
">1 fifth in the league in Pythagorean winning percentageEssentially, the winning percentage we’d expect the team to have based on its runs scored and allowed.
">2 and third in wins above replacement per game.Averaging together the WAR metrics found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
">3 This isn’t merely a case of an outclassed team getting lucky by squeaking out close wins and moving up the standings; the Braves have come to their record honestly.
The rest here. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-braves-got-hot-fast-and-they-might-stay-that-way/
The Braves Got Hot Fast, And They Might Stay That Way
By Neil Paine
The Atlanta Braves are, as they say, “ahead of schedule.” Going into the season, we commended their young talent base but gave them just a 15 percent shot at making the playoffs, figuring that they’d need another year of rebuilding before truly making the leap toward contention. Fast-forward a month, however, and Atlanta is blowing away those expectations: Against a difficult schedule, the Braves are 19-11 and occupy first place in the NL East — one and a half games clear of the New York Mets, who they just swept in a three-game series. So far, at least, the Braves’ future appears to be now.
Even so, statistical algorithms such as FanGraphs’ rest-of-season projections and our own Elo system aren’t fully convinced. The former only has the Braves winning at the majors’ 21st-best clip over the rest of the season, while the latter is barely more optimistic, with Atlanta ranked 14th in the big leagues in terms of Elo. The stats are optimized for prediction, of course — but they have blind spots, too. So, a couple of days into May, is it too soon to call this a breakout year for Atlanta?
Certainly Atlanta has played at an elite level over the first month of the season. On top of its impressive record (a 103-win pace over 162 games), the Braves rankThis and all following 2018 stats are up-to-date through Wednesday’s games.
">1 fifth in the league in Pythagorean winning percentageEssentially, the winning percentage we’d expect the team to have based on its runs scored and allowed.
">2 and third in wins above replacement per game.Averaging together the WAR metrics found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
">3 This isn’t merely a case of an outclassed team getting lucky by squeaking out close wins and moving up the standings; the Braves have come to their record honestly.
The rest here. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-braves-got-hot-fast-and-they-might-stay-that-way/
