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Braves 2018

If you're an analytics geek, you'll enjoy this.

The Braves Got Hot Fast, And They Might Stay That Way
By Neil Paine

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The Atlanta Braves are, as they say, “ahead of schedule.” Going into the season, we commended their young talent base but gave them just a 15 percent shot at making the playoffs, figuring that they’d need another year of rebuilding before truly making the leap toward contention. Fast-forward a month, however, and Atlanta is blowing away those expectations: Against a difficult schedule, the Braves are 19-11 and occupy first place in the NL East — one and a half games clear of the New York Mets, who they just swept in a three-game series. So far, at least, the Braves’ future appears to be now.

Even so, statistical algorithms such as FanGraphs’ rest-of-season projections and our own Elo system aren’t fully convinced. The former only has the Braves winning at the majors’ 21st-best clip over the rest of the season, while the latter is barely more optimistic, with Atlanta ranked 14th in the big leagues in terms of Elo. The stats are optimized for prediction, of course — but they have blind spots, too. So, a couple of days into May, is it too soon to call this a breakout year for Atlanta?

Certainly Atlanta has played at an elite level over the first month of the season. On top of its impressive record (a 103-win pace over 162 games), the Braves rankThis and all following 2018 stats are up-to-date through Wednesday’s games.

">1
fifth in the league in Pythagorean winning percentageEssentially, the winning percentage we’d expect the team to have based on its runs scored and allowed.

">2
and third in wins above replacement per game.Averaging together the WAR metrics found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

">3
This isn’t merely a case of an outclassed team getting lucky by squeaking out close wins and moving up the standings; the Braves have come to their record honestly.


The rest here. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-braves-got-hot-fast-and-they-might-stay-that-way/
 
Not sure what I think of this move.

Source: Bautista joining Braves, will play third

ATLANTA -- Jose Bautista is set to prove he can play third base and further enrich an already dynamic lineup when he joins the Braves for Friday night's series opener against the Giants at SunTrust Park.

Bautista's arrival has been anticipated since he signed a Minor League deal with Atlanta on April 18. The 37-year-old veteran has spent the past couple of weeks making up for the normal preparations he was not able to make as he remained a free agent throughout Spring Training and the first couple weeks of the season.

The Braves have not announced Bautista's addition to the active roster, but a source familiar with the situation said the six-time All-Star and two-time Hank Aaron Award nominee is expected to be with the team on Friday.

Bautista hit .256 and produced a .768 OPS over the 12 games he combined to play for Class A Advanced Florida and Triple-A Gwinnett. He went 5-for-16 with a double and a homer in his final four games for Gwinnett. Bautista was not in the lineup for Thursday night's game.

With his arrival, Bautista will be Atlanta's primary third baseman. He spent most of the past decade as an outfielder for the Blue Jays. But Bautista primarily played third base during the early portion of his career and got a few spot starts at the position over the past few years.

The Braves have used Ryan Flaherty and Johan Camargo as their third basemen this year. Both will now primarily be used off the bench. But because Dansby Swanson is still dealing with some left wrist discomfort, Camargo could get a couple more starts at shortstop this weekend.

The big question for Bautista is how he'll handle third base, where he has started only six games since 2012. Infield coordinator Adam Everett worked extensively with Bautista and was encouraged by what he saw, giving the Braves enough confidence to put him at the hot corner. Bautista started 25 games at third base in 2011 with Toronto and has started 349 games there overall during his career.

So why would Atlanta, an up-and-coming team built largely around youth, bring in a 14-year veteran who drew little to no interest on the free-agent market?

For starters, Bautista's big league salary will be $1 million prorated, which means the Braves will pay him about $800,000 if he remains with the club for the remainder of the season.

https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-bautista-coming-up-to-join-braves/c-275200970
 
I would bring him in to replace Culberson. But would you want to leave Flaherty on the bench as hot as he is at this time?
 
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Folt is so inconsistent.... never know what pitcher is going to show up ... down 6-2 in the second .. 56 pitches.
 
It's simple. You get everyone's hopes up, draw two huge home crowds and fall flat on your face.

I've lived here for 45 years now, and it's alway been ever thus. Hoping the 5 Stripes don't go down that path, though.
 
It's simple. You get everyone's hopes up, draw two huge home crowds and fall flat on your face.

I've lived here for 45 years now, and it's alway been ever thus. Hoping the 5 Stripes don't go down that path, though.
Astonishing lopsided losses ... after the sweep of the Mets I expected the friendly confines of home would produce similar results
 
Braves go from impressively sweeping to being unimpressively being swept. I guess if there's a silver lining, it's that's they are still in first place.
A sliver of a silver lining ...
 
Held a 1-0 lead .... impressive.
In these days of seemingly everyone wanting more offense, I personally love pitcher duals. The drama and excitement of knowing every pitch, every at bat, every play in the field is crucial to the outcome of the game is great. I enjoyed playing in those games and watching them now.

I realize that I'm in the minority in that opinion but that's okay.
 
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What an odd last three series. Go to New York and sweep the Mets in completely dominating fashion. Come home and get dominated in three games against the Giants. Go back on the road and display stellar pitching against the Rays.

The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games with all the wins coming on the road . Confounding .

21:D
14:(
 
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Ozzie with 11 HRs so far and only 1 behind Bryce Harper. At this pace he is projected to hit 50, smh. What a crazy season.
 
6421.jpg

Jose Altuve | Second Baseman | #27
Team: Houston Astros
Age / DOB: (28) / 5/6/1990
Ht / Wt: 5'6" / 164
Bats / Throws: Right / Right
College: None
Drafted: 2006 / UDFA / HOU

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Ozzie Albies | Second Baseman | #1
Team: Atlanta Braves
Age / DOB: (21) / 1/7/1997
Ht / Wt: 5'8" / 155
Bats / Throws: Switch / Right
Drafted: 2013 / UDFA / ATL
 
6421.jpg

Jose Altuve | Second Baseman | #27
Team: Houston Astros
Age / DOB: (28) / 5/6/1990
Ht / Wt: 5'6" / 164
Bats / Throws: Right / Right
College: None
Drafted: 2006 / UDFA / HOU

8280.jpg

Ozzie Albies | Second Baseman | #1
Team: Atlanta Braves
Age / DOB: (21) / 1/7/1997
Ht / Wt: 5'8" / 155
Bats / Throws: Switch / Right
Drafted: 2013 / UDFA / ATL
LOL! There is no way Albies is 5'8" .... he is having a great year, however.
 
What does Bautista bring to the Braves?
 
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Flaherty deserves to play third base more than Bautista right now. I know historically Bautista has been the better player and it's not close but right now Flaherty is playing really well.
Bautista hit around .200 last year and is currently hitting about .130. His fifth-inning error tonight cost Atlanta 4 runs.
 
Bautista hit around .200 last year and is currently hitting about .130. His fifth-inning error tonight cost Atlanta 4 runs.
Saw that, terrible. Soroka should still be in this game if it wasn't for Baustista's error. I'm just baffled on why Flaherty is not the everyday third baseman for the time being
 
Saw that, terrible. Soroka should still be in this game if it wasn't for Baustista's error. I'm just baffled on why Flaherty is not the everyday third baseman for the time being
Well, Bautista did hit a home run .... does not make up for the error. .... agree with you about Flaherty.
 
It got a little too interesting in the 9th yesterday. I'm a fan of Minter but he struggled some in that closer role against a quality team.

25 :D
15 :(
Bases loaded, down one, two outs? What did he have, 2-3 walks?
 
Minter has 12 walks with 15 k's in 17 innings pitched. He definitely has potential to be a closer but has to harness the command. I get nervous everytime Vizcaino comes in to close, he can sometimes struggle with command and got hit hard last time (luckily Freeman made a great play and the other was right to Markakis). Shane Carle and Dan Winkler have been huge for us out of the pen so far, something I didn't see coming.
 
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